Oscar Predictions 2016 UPDATE

On Academy Award nominations morning, Twentieth Century Fox had a good day. “The Revenant” led the field with 12 nominations, more than expected, because the movie landed a surprise nod for first-time nominee and Supporting Actor Tom Hardy (a sign of strength) along with every possible technical category. (Arguably, the actors branch rewarded Hardy for his amazing year, including “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “Legend”). Altogether with “The Martian” (seven), “Joy” (for 25-year-old Jennifer Lawrence, the youngest actress ever with four noms to date), and Fox Searchlight’s “Brooklyn” (three) and “Youth” (one), the studio nabbed an astonishing 24 nominations. While Fox handled foreign territories, Disney managed the domestic release of “Bridge of Spies” (producer Steven Spielberg’s ninth nomination), with six nominations including Picture, as well as Lucasfilm’s “Star Wars: Force Awakens” (five), Pixar’s “Inside Out,” (two), and Pixar animated short “Sanjay’s Super Team,” for a studio total of fifteen.

Warner Bros.’ “Mad Max: Fury Road” scored its expected 10 nominations including Best Picture and Director. (Distributor Warners can also claim Supporting Actor frontrunner Sylvester Stallone for MGM/New Line’s “Creed.”) But the duel of the titans between Miller and fellow septuagenarian Ridley Scott was not to be. Although “The Martian” landed seven nominations, including Best Actor Matt Damon, Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay, there was nothing for Scott, who went on to lose at the DGA to A.G. Iñárritu, for his second win a row after “Birdman,” the first in the guild’s 80-year-history. 

This is as dramatic an omission as Ben Affleck’s directing snub for “Argo,” which led to that film’s underdog status and eventual Best Picture win. The Academy directors are a snobby group, and seem to have given the directors who also write (whether credited or not) the advantage: George Miller (“Fury Road”), Adam McKay (“The Big Short”), Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”), Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”) and last year’s “Birdman” winner Iñárritu (“The Revenant”). 

While Fox has turned the narrative of “The Revenant” into a story of an artist’s triumph against formidable odds, they weren’t able to give “The Martian” that same cred. Only twice in Oscar history has a director won twice in a row: John Ford (“The Grapes of Wrath,” 1941, and “How Green Was My Valley,” 1942) and Joseph L. Mankiewicz (“A Letter to Three Wives,” 1950, “All About Eve,” 1951). Will the entire Academy go for Iñárritu? He did pick up picture and director wins for “The Revenant” at the BAFTAs, but was not nominated for SAG Ensemble (Leonardo DiCaprio did win) and did not win the PGA. “Spotlight” took SAG and “The Big Short” took the PGA.

In a year when Best Picture and Director could split, I’m betting Australian auteur Miller wins this one for his long career, from the original “Mad Max” through Best Picture nominee “Babe,” Animated Oscar winner “Happy Feet,” and now the superbly crafted and executed action spectacle “Fury Road.” Does the genre count against him? Well, that’s why it might not win Best Picture. Is he too much of an outsider, living in Australia? Maybe. But “Fury Road” has been picking up guild wins (not PGA or DGA), and will take home many tech Oscars. Neither “The Revenant” nor “Fury Road” was nominated for screenplay, mainly because they dialogue-light visual spectacles.

Indie Best Picture contenders “Brooklyn” (three, Searchlight), “Room” (four, A24, which also got four nominations for “Ex Machina” and handled doc frontrunner “Amy”) and “Spotlight” (six, Open Road) prove yet again that voter passion and appreciation for skill can also triumph over scale. Alas, “Carol” didn’t make the cut (six, The Weinstein Co., which also notched three for “The Hateful Eight”).

“Brooklyn” star Saoirse Ronan (her second nomination, after “Atonement”) will compete against first-timer Brie Larson in “Room,” who should win for her layered performance as a kidnapped mother trapped in a shed with her five-year-old son. “45 Years” veteran Charlotte Rampling slipped into Best Actress without SAG, BAFTA or Golden Globe nominations, no mean feat; it’s her first nomination. The Academy actors often make room for a respected European thespian like Juliette Binoche or Marion Cotillard. 

Supporting Actress is harder to call: will “Carol” star Rooney Mara (her second nomination, after “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”) beat first-timer Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl” (four, Focus Features), who also starred in “Testament of Youth” and “Ex Machina” this year? Or will respected Golden Globe and BAFTA winner Kate Winslet, who was nominated for Universal’s “Steve Jobs” along with Michael Fassbender, carry the day? (Winslet has won before, Best Actress for “The Reader.”) “Steve Jobs” failed to land any other nominations, not even Adapted Screenplay for Oscar perennial Aaron Sorkin, which was a surprise. Clearly its strongest support came from actors. Both “Carol” and “The Danish Girl” could score some craft wins; Sandy Powell, with the most nominations for a living costume designer with 12, could win for “Carol,” if she doesn’t split the vote with “Cinderella.”

Lionsgate grabbed three tech nominations for “Sicario,” including Roger Deakins, earning his 13th nomination, the most for any cinematographer—he has never won. He competes with “The Hateful Eight” cinematographer Bob Richardson, who was not nominated by his guild, for his stunning Ultra-Panavision photography. His director Quentin Tarantino did not wind up with an Original Screenplay nomination, but 87-year-old Ennio Morricone, with an Honorary Oscar, is the favorite to win Best Original Score over 83-year-old “Stars Wars” vet John Williams, with a record 45 nominations for score, not to mention five songs! No other living person has logged more nominations, and historically, only Walt Disney beats him, with 59. 

As usual, the British had a good day, with 41 nominations for films and/or talent from the UK—a third of the nominations. Film 4 backed “Room” and “Ex Machina” (A24), “Carol” (TWC), “45 Years” (IFC’s Sundance Selects) and “Youth” (Fox Searchlight”), which landed no acting love but a Best Original Song nod. And the BFI Fund supported both “45 Years” and “Brooklyn.” 

Which movie has momentum at this stage? Sometimes being the frontrunner is a negative, as small-scale talking heads drama “Spotlight,” with backing from actors, directors, writers and (significantly) editors, has to hang on to voter goodwill against two flashier late-inning releases with box office surges behind them, Paramount’s sharp political comedy “The Big Short” and frontier epic “The Revenant,” which boasts a surefire Best Actor win for Leonardo DiCaprio, getting a boost for suffering for his art.

Can “The Revenant” win Best Picture? That Iñárritu’s “Birdman” won last year counts against it—but that film lent New Regency backer Arnon Milchan (Best Picture contender “L.A. Confidential”) confidence to support the filmmaker all the way with his first big-budget production, to the tune of $135 million. With that money, Iñárritu granted cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki (“The Tree of Life,” “Gravity”) unusual latitude to pursue the best light for the best shot, no matter what the cost in stress for the cast and crew or the financial bottom line. ACE-winner Lubezki could win his third Oscar in a row. If “Spotlight” and “The Big Short” share support from the same quarter, then “The Revenant” could take home the statuette. 

One unfortunate narrative is 2016 Oscar voters’ lily-white selections. Yet again, as last year, among the actors there were no people of color, as Idris Elba did not land an expected supporting nomination for Netflix pickup “Beasts of No Nation,” which was shut out. (Netflix continues to dominate the doc category, with well-hyped “Winter on Fire” and “What Happened, Miss Simone?”) The one nomination for Ryan Coogler’s “Creed” was for Sylvester Stallone, reprising his 1976 role as Rocky Balboa (and earning standing ovations wherever he goes), while Universal’s commercial hit “Straight Outta Compton” scored only a Screenplay nod (for its white writers), but no Best Picture slot. With only eight nominees versus the PGA’s list of ten, “Compton” did not make the Oscar cut.

Nor did global blockbuster “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” which scored five technical nods including VFX and Score, or animated feature “Inside Out,” which will handily win its category, if not Original Screenplay, which should go to “Spotlight.” 

Yes, this year’s Oscar show on February 28. hosted by Chris Rock, will boast plenty of popular competitors to draw viewers. Just not ones that reflect the world we live in. 

Performance by an actor in a leading role:

Bryan Cranston in “Trumbo” 
Matt Damon in “The Martian” 
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant” 
Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs” 
Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl”

Christian Bale in “The Big Short” 
Tom Hardy in “The Revenant” 
Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight” 
Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies” 
Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”

Cate Blanchett in “Carol” 
Brie Larson in “Room” 
Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy” 
Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years” 
Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”

Jennifer Jason Leigh in “The Hateful Eight” 
Rooney Mara in “Carol” 
Rachel McAdams in “Spotlight” 
Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl” 
Kate Winslet in “Steve Jobs”

“Anomalisa” Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran 
“Boy and the World” Alê Abreu 
“Inside Out” Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera 
“Shaun the Sheep Movie” Mark Burton and Richard Starzak 
“When Marnie Was There” Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura

“Carol” Ed Lachman 
“The Hateful Eight” Robert Richardson 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” John Seale 
“The Revenant” Emmanuel Lubezki 
“Sicario” Roger Deakins

“Carol” Sandy Powell 
“Cinderella” Sandy Powell 
“The Danish Girl” Paco Delgado 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Jenny Beavan 
“The Revenant” Jacqueline West

“The Big Short” Adam McKay 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” George Miller 
“The Revenant” Alejandro G. Iñárritu 
“Room” Lenny Abrahamson 
“Spotlight” Tom McCarthy

“Amy” Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees 
“Cartel Land” Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin 
“The Look of Silence” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen 
“What Happened, Miss Simone?” Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes 
“Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor

“Body Team 12” David Darg and Bryn Mooser 
“Chau, beyond the Lines” Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck 
“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine 
“A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness” Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 
“Last Day of Freedom” Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman

“The Big Short” Hank Corwin 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Margaret Sixel 
“The Revenant” Stephen Mirrione 
“Spotlight” Tom McArdle 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

“Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia 
“Mustang” France 
“Son of Saul” Hungary 
“Theeb” Jordan 
“A War” Denmark

“Mad Max: Fury Road” Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin 
“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared” Love Larson and Eva von Bahr 
“The Revenant” Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini

“Bridge of Spies” Thomas Newman 
“Carol” Carter Burwell 
“The Hateful Eight” Ennio Morricone 
“Sicario” Jóhann Jóhannsson 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” John Williams

“Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey” 
Music and Lyric by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio 
“Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction” 
Music by J. Ralph and Lyric by Antony Hegarty 
“Simple Song #3” from “Youth” 
Music and Lyric by David Lang 
“Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga 
“Writing’s On The Wall” from “Spectre” 
Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith

“The Big Short” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers 
“Bridge of Spies” Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers 
“Brooklyn” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Doug Mitchell and George Miller, Producers 
“The Martian” Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam, Producers 
“The Revenant” Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers 
“Room” Ed Guiney, Producer 
“Spotlight” Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust, Producers

“Bridge of Spies” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich 
“The Danish Girl” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson 
“The Martian” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak 
“The Revenant” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy

“Bear Story” Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala 
“Prologue” Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton 
“Sanjay’s Super Team” Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle 
“We Can’t Live without Cosmos” Konstantin Bronzit 
“World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt

“Ave Maria” Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont 
“Day One” Henry Hughes 
“Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)” Patrick Vollrath 
“Shok” Jamie Donoughue 
“Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage

“Mad Max: Fury Road” Mark Mangini and David White 
“The Martian” Oliver Tarney 
“The Revenant” Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender 
“Sicario” Alan Robert Murray 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Matthew Wood and David Acord

“Bridge of Spies” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo 
“The Martian” Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth 
“The Revenant” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson

“Ex Machina” Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett 
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams 
“The Martian” Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner 
“The Revenant” Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer 
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould

“The Big Short” Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay 
“Brooklyn” Screenplay by Nick Hornby 
“Carol” Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy 
“The Martian” Screenplay by Drew Goddard 
“Room” Screenplay by Emma Donoghue

“Bridge of Spies” Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen 
“Ex Machina” Written by Alex Garland 
“Inside Out” Screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original story by Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen 
“Spotlight” Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy 
“Straight Outta Compton” Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff